Introduction: The Israeli-Hamas conflict, a long-standing issue in the Middle East, has gained renewed attention due to recent escalations that have claimed numerous lives. Some experts believe these events could have significant implications for global peace and security, potentially shaping a new world order. In this article, we will explore various perspectives on this issue and examine the factors that could contribute to such a transformation.
The Recent Escalation: On October 7th, after a significant Hamas attack, celebrations erupted in Iran, with the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei releasing propaganda glorifying the operation. This marked the latest chapter in the enduring conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, beyond the immediate conflict lies a notable development: the strengthening of relations between two autocratic states, Iran and Russia. This relationship is founded on shared hostility towards the West and a desire to challenge the US-led rules-based order.
Iran’s Support for Hamas: Iran has a long history of animosity towards Israel, providing support to its enemies, including Hamas. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been funding, arming, and training Hamas since the early 1990s. Although there was a temporary halt in funding in 2012 due to disagreements over support for Iran’s ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, it resumed in 2017. Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military adviser to Khamenei, expressed unequivocal support for the attack, and Hamas leaders have publicly thanked Iran for its support.
Russia’s Changing Stance: Russia has traditionally maintained good relations with Israel, with President Vladimir Putin initially taking a hardline stance against Islamic terrorism. However, as Putin’s ambitions have grown, his alignment has shifted away from the Western order he once aspired to join. Since February 2022, Russia and Iran have formed an alliance, finding common ground as they face exclusion from international agreements and trade deals. This relationship was highlighted by a recent visit from Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, to Tehran, where he discussed strengthening bilateral defense and military cooperation.
US-Iran Relations and Regional Implications: The situation is further complicated by recent US-Iran relations. Washington recently struck a deal with Iran, securing the release of five American hostages in exchange for five Iranians held in US prisons and the release of approximately $6 billion in Iranian assets previously frozen in South Korea. Critics argue that the released funds may have been used to finance the recent attack, despite the White House’s insistence that the money is directed only toward humanitarian purposes.
Geopolitical Dynamics: The geopolitical landscape is shifting as Russia and Iran forge stronger ties. Hamas leaders have made multiple trips to Moscow, engaging with Russian security officials and politicians. This relationship signifies a larger geopolitical division between East and West. Iran views its role as pivotal in a civilizational clash against the West, advocating for a new world order characterized by a multipolar global structure.
Iran’s Vision of a New World Order: Ayatollah Khamenei envisions a new world order comprising three civilizations: a Russo-Slavic civilization led by Russia, an Islamic civilization under Iran’s Shia Islamists, and the Chinese Han civilization. Putin, echoing this vision, insists that the shift towards a multipolar world is inevitable. Both Russia and Iran perceive the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine as fronts in a broader confrontation between East and West.
Conclusion: The Israeli-Hamas conflict is not merely a regional issue but a significant factor in the evolving global geopolitical landscape. The strengthening of ties between Iran and Russia, coupled with their shared hostility towards the West, suggests a potential shift towards a new world order. As the United States and its allies navigate these complexities, the outcome of this conflict could have far-reaching implications for international peace and security.
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